Knight at the Movies ARCHIVES
The Annual Horse Race:
Oscar Predictions 2005
2-23-05 Knight at the Movies column
By Richard Knight, Jr.



























There are years when it truly is fun to try to predict the outcome of the annual Oscar race but this isn’t one of
them.  Now don’t think I’m raining on Oscar’s parade – I’m not.  My partner and I are still having our annual
Academy Award party (with gift bags, to boot).  It’s just that the major category nominations offer few surprises
this year (and does anyone really think that Clint Eastwood is going to win Best Actor over Jamie Foxx?) and that
most of the nominated movies and performances haven’t had much resonance for me.  

Usually, when I love a movie – whether for the subject matter, the acting, writing, directing, gimmick, whatever –
I can’t wait to see it again a second, third, and even fourth time. With the exception of
Finding Neverland,
however, nothing that’s been nominated has had me running to the theatre for a second cinema helping.  And the
nominated films I haven’t seen yet don’t sound particularly enticing either.  Don’t get me wrong, for example, I
love Imelda Staunton and still recall with deep pleasure her pixilated, daffy aristocrat in
Sense & Sensibility, but I
just can’t seem to get excited about seeing the story of an English housewife who performs abortions on the side,
the basis of
Vera Drake.  And what does the Academy Awards have against comedy and action?

I’ve been known to change my mind and get behind a movie once the proper mood hits, however.  I prefer some
critical distance and time to decide for myself what should and shouldn’t have taken home awards (or been
nominated in the first place).  Hindsight is a beautiful, bitter thing when it comes to the Oscars and years of award
watching, seeing bad and good predictions go astray have proven that.  Also, the momentum that a picture, a
performance seems to carry in the moment can pale when revisited (sometimes just scant years later).  

Examples?  How can it be possible, I wonder, that
The Shawshank Redemption lost Best Picture to Forest Gump in
1994 (or that anything lost to
Forest Gump)?  That Robert Redford won Best Director for Ordinary People in 1980
over Martin Scorsese for
Raging Bull?  And worse – that Scorsese’s magnum opus, Good Fellas lost him both
director and picture Oscars to Kevin Costner’s
Dances With Wolves in 1990?  How to explain this duo of bad
pictures bloated with nominations – 11 for the 1977 Shirley MacLaine-Anne Bancroft bitchfest
The Turning Point,
and 10 for the camp disaster flick, 1970’s
Airport?

Everyone cites the hilarious injustice of Pia Zadora winning a Golden Globe in 1982 for the dreadful
Butterfly as
proof that a rich husband could buy an award (I, on the other hand, love that it was so damn blatant).  But who
bought off the group of voters that handed Oscar gold to Nicole “the nose” Kidman’s 2002 for
The Hours over
Julianne Moore in
Far From Heaven?  Or how about 1998’s double whammy in which Gwyneth Paltrow walked
into the winner’s circle for
Shakespeare in Love sidestepping Cate Blanchett’s Elizabeth while moments later Life
Is Beautiful
’s Roberto Benigni (literally) leapt on the stage to grab Oscar’s ass before the Academy could have a
chance to realize that they’d made a terrible mistake and re-awarded it to the true winner, Ian MacKellan for
Gods
and Monsters
? (Or maybe it was Benigni first, Paltrow second, I’ve blocked it out.)

Paltrow was great, you say, Kidman was deserving, you think, Sir Ian was bound to be ignored playing gay, sez
you?  After all, a nomination for a gay man playing a gay character was proof of that phony baloney “it’s an honor
just to be nominated” jazz, right?  Well, as in all things when it comes to the Oscars (and the movies, actually), you
say Tomato, I say Travolta.  In other words, in the end – yes – it’s all a matter of opinion.  

I have several friends, for example, who are prepared to argue with me to the death over the Kidman win while
I'm ready to go to the mat over Sally Field’s
Norma Rae snatching the Oscar away from Bette Midler’s The Rose in
1979 (you’re right Bette – you was robbed.)  Also, unlike “Star Trek” TV show spin offs, you have to vote for
what's on the ballot – even when it’s in fun.  Write in campaigns aren’t allowed with the bloody serious Oscars
(which is why, oddly enough, that
The Corporation and Fahrenheit 9/11 aren’t up for Best Documentary this year,
I guess and Colin Farrell and Peter Sarsgaard were overlooked for
A Home at the End of the World and Kinsey
though those might be too gay, perhaps).

I think these “injustices” must be one reason why after a certain point I started flip-flopping on the Oscar ballots
that we pass out at our party as our guests are doing their own Joan and Melissa commentary over the arriving
fashion successes and disasters.  I alternate between what I WANT to win with what I THINK will win.  If it’s a
year that there are a majority of nominated films that have moved me I go for what I WANT to win.  If it’s a year,
like this one, in which I don’t have much interest in the outcome, I get cynical and assess based on the downpour of
media predictions that greet every Oscar race.

That’s a long preamble to give you my picks for the top categories this year:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Virginia Madsen,
Sideways (okay, this is a tie for both the THINK and WANT
criteria with me.  She’s a friend of one of my oldest friends, deserves it after a long, dry career spell, and most
selfishly, people will now recognize the pictures we had taken with her when we met her for this great
performance and not by explaining, “She was on “The Practice” TV show and was in that horror flick shot at
Cabrini-Green, Candyman.”)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Clive Owen,
Closer
BEST DIRECTOR – Martin Scorsese, The Aviator (give it to him already!)
BEST ACTRESS – Hilary Swank,
Million Dollar Baby (though I think the film’s been vastly over rated, Swank’s
performance hasn’t been.  But here’s hoping she finds a hit movie without her character being pummeled)
BEST ACTOR – Jamie Foxx,
Ray (a slam dunk though Paul Giamatti’s Oscar snub for Sideways would have made
for a real competition – or perhaps a deserved tie)
BEST PICTURE –
The Aviator (though my heart belongs to Finding Neverland, it’s really a “small picture” and I
think Scorsese’s epic biography is going to age well and is scaled large)

NOTE:  FOR THOSE KEEPING SCORE, I ONLY GOT TWO OUT OF THE TOP
CATEGORIES CORRECT -- BUT THAT WAS PREDICTABLE, RIGHT?
A Blah Year Capped by a Blah Ceremony?